Research probes links between extreme weather events and violent conflicts in the Bangsamoro
DAVAO CITY (MindaNews / 23 October) – While the peace processes between government and the Moro liberation fronts have converged for a smoother implementation of the peace agreements, old drivers of conflict in the Bangsamoro region could resurface and new drivers could emerge as climate change intensifies into the level of emergency.
“The path to sustainable peace is impossible to pave unless climate change and conflict effects are tackled together,” the research brief of a two-year project (2021 to 2023) of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) said.
The research, “Climate-Fragility Risks in the Philippine Bangsamoro,’ aims to produce “robust and empirical evidence” that will establish the linkages between extreme weather events and violent conflicts in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), which has been dubbed the “most climate-and-conflict vulnerable Philippine region.”
The BARMM, along with neighboring areas in Mindanao, is projected to be drier than average in the year 2050, affecting its water supply that supports agricultural production.
According to the research brief, climate change and its impacts exacerbate humanitarian challenges, reduce development, and undermine people’s capacity to adapt. “As climate change intensifies — to the level of an emergency — in the Philippines, many of the old drivers of conflict can resurface in the Bangsamoro region, which, for decades, has been hosting violent conflicts, while, at the same time, new conflict drivers can also emerge. The path to sustainable peace, thus, is impossible to pave unless climate change and conflict effects are tackled together.”
It added that with the Philippines “extremely climate change-vulnerable, the short-term benefits of the Bangsamoro peace agreement can be easily jeopardized.”
The research is led by Laurence L. Delina of Santo Niño, South Cotabato, presently Assistant Professor at the HKUST’s Division of Environment and Sustainability. The other members in the team are anthropologist and Mindanao peace studies expert Rufa Guiam, Spatial Mapping SpecialistHomer Pagkalinawan and Jon Gaviola, Senior Social Science Researcher.
The project assesses and outlines the specific and complex ways in which the risks affecting the Bangsamoro people are linked, “and designs and develops novel strategies to address these emergent climate-fragility risks.”
The research is described as “first-of-its-kind” in the Bangsamoro region comprising Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi, the cities of Marawi, Lamitan and Cotabato and 63 villages in six North Cotabato towns, as it “goes beyond traditional risk assessments andcombines culture-sensitive, inclusive, participatory, and qualitative and quantitative data-gathering techniques.”
According to Delina, the project examines the relationships “between intense precipitations and prolonged droughts, land-use changes, food price variations, and regional conflicts.”
Climate change, he said, is a “threat multiplier,” especially for agriculturally dependent societies with conflict histories and exhibiting high political exclusion, like the Bangsamoro.
The research team looked into the long-term hydrological data of the Bangsamoro region, including satellite observations to ascertain the variations in its forest cover and the surface water extent level in its lakes andmarshlands.
The team also conducted interviews and focus group discussions with community members, security and development experts and state officials; reviewed the extant literature on the Mindanao conflict; and laid satellite data over data from the literature.
The research team looked into the root drivers of the violent crises that Mindanao faced in the past todescribe “how increasing social inequality, marginalization, weak governance, social exclusion, dominant gender norms and inequalities, demographic shifts, human rights violations, and the impact of climate changehad, in concert, increased violent crises in the Bangsamoro.”
The team also produced a fact-driven climate-fragility risk (CFR) assessment tool to assist in identifying key risks and proposing pragmatic solutions.
A multisectoral deliberative workshop was held on July 13 and 14, 2022 at The Farm at Carpenter Hill in Koronadal City, South Cotabato, bringing together key stakeholders from the BARMM and other Mindanao areas to “collaboratively critique and test” the CFR assessment tool.
Participants deliberated and developed strategic policy and pragmatic recommendations to address their self-identified CFR risks, developed a suite of interventions and guiding principles for strategic engagement based on the identified Bangsamoro-specific CFR factors “which, if implemented, could help prevent negative security outcomes in this most climate-and-conflict vulnerable Philippine region.”
HKUST is a leading science, technology, and engineering-focused university in Asia and has been at theforefront of ground-breaking research.
The research project is funded by the United States Institute for Peace (USIP), a nonpartisan, independent national organization that collaborates with local partners in conflict zones around the world to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. (Carolyn O. Arguillas / MindaNews)
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