WHAT NOW, WEDNESDAY | The Morning After the Fuel Hike

TAGUIG CITY (MindaNews / 8 April) — By the time this column appears on Wednesday, the newest fuel-price hike will already have landed.

That matters. Because by then, this is no longer a forecast, a projection, or a late-night headline that still feels abstract. It is already in the pumps, already in the receipts, already in the small computations families make before breakfast. GMA News reported ahead of this week’s adjustment that diesel was expected to rise by ₱17 to ₱19 per liter and gasoline by ₱3 to ₱5 per liter, with regular diesel potentially reaching about ₱165/liter, premium diesel going past ₱170/liter, and some gasoline variants nearing ₱120/liter.

If those levels were reached on Tuesday, then the Philippines has likely entered record territory for pump-price levels. The old benchmark from the 2022 oil shock was far lower: Reuters reported that Manila gasoline hit a then-record ₱81.85 per liter in March 2022.

But let us be precise. This may be the highest pump price level in Philippine history, but it does not appear to be the biggest one-week increase. Earlier in March 2026, news reports had already described a sharper diesel jump of roughly ₱24 per liter. So this week’s story is not only about how much prices rose. It is about the height at which they now sit.

And once diesel rises to this level, it stops being just a motoring story.

Diesel is the bloodstream of a working economy. It powers trucks that move food, buses and jeepneys that move workers, delivery fleets that move household goods, and generators that keep some businesses functioning. That is why diesel matters more broadly than gasoline. A gasoline spike hurts motorists. A diesel spike travels outward, entering fares, food prices, logistics costs, construction, and eventually the weekly budget of families who do not even own a car. Before this week’s adjustment even took effect, GMA reported that the year-to-date net increase had already reached ₱90.05/liter for diesel and ₱48.20/liter for gasoline.

When prices rise, the poor feel it first

When economists say inflation is still “manageable,” that may be true on paper. But for poorer Filipino households, the test is simpler and more immediate: Magkano na ang bigas? Magkano ang isda? Magkano ang pamasahe, kuryente, at gas?

This is why the Consumer Price Index for the bottom 30% income households matters. BSP research notes explain that the PSA releases a separate CPI series for these households because it better reflects the consumption pattern of low-income families. Food carries a much heavier weight in that basket than it does for the population as a whole, which makes it a more revealing measure of pressure at the lower end. BSP research has noted that food accounts for roughly half of the bottom-30 basket, versus a much lower share for all households combined.

The trend is sobering. BSP’s selected economic indicators show the CPI for the bottom 30% income households at 133.2 using 2018 = 100; the food index at 132.3; and non-food at 130.4. In plain language, the everyday basket commonly bought by poorer households now costs roughly a third more than it did in the 2018 base year.

And the pressure had already been building even before this latest fuel shock. BusinessWorld, citing PSA data, reported that inflation for the bottom 30% income households rose to 2.5% in February 2026, up from 1.6% in January. The reported drivers included faster price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and restaurants and accommodation services.

So the real issue is not just whether inflation remains inside target. It is whether families at the bottom still have room to breathe.

Because when prices rise, the poor do not feel it later.

They feel it first.

And they feel it hardest. BSP research on the distributional impact of inflation likewise found that the adverse consequences of higher inflation are felt more strongly by lower-income households.

Why the Philippines is feeling this so sharply

Compared with Southeast Asian neighbors, the Philippines is now one of the region’s more expensive fuel markets, especially for diesel. Recent regional price comparisons show Philippine diesel already above levels in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia before this week’s projected surge.

Why? First, because the country imports almost all of its oil and is highly exposed to disruptions passing through the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that the Philippines remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, leaving domestic pump prices vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Second, because unlike some ASEAN neighbors, the Philippines does not use massive blanket subsidies to suppress pump prices. Reuters reported that Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have relied far more heavily on subsidies, tax suspensions, or both to cushion consumers during the current oil shock.

Third, because local pump prices include excise taxes and VAT, which do not explain the whole surge but do raise the floor that consumers pay once global prices spike. PNA reported in March that the government was considering excise-tax relief if oil breached $80 per barrel, precisely because officials recognized the inflationary danger.

What policy should focus on now

Government has already acknowledged the danger. In March, DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said officials were closely monitoring the inflationary effect of Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. PNA reported that the government was considering measures such as a possible suspension of petroleum excise taxes if global oil crossed $80 per barrel, along with shuttle buses, carpooling, work-from-home arrangements, and compressed workweeks to reduce fuel use. Officials also pointed to longer-term responses such as renewable energy, alternative fuels, active transport, and stronger conservation programs.

That points to four immediate priorities.

First: protect food supply and food prices. If poorer households are being squeezed, the quickest relief usually comes not from speeches but from stabilizing the cost of rice, fish, vegetables, and other staples. February inflation data already showed food as a key driver of price pressure for the bottom 30%.

Second: cushion transport and fuel shocks. If oil keeps rising, government should be ready with targeted, temporary support for public transport, food logistics, and low-income commuters before higher pump prices fully spill into fares and delivery costs. That is consistent with the measures officials have already publicly floated.

Third: contain electricity pass-through. Poor households cannot easily absorb higher power bills. Since housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels were already contributing to faster inflation in February, it follows that managing generation-cost spikes, accelerating cheaper renewables and storage, and intensifying energy-efficiency efforts should be part of the response. That is an inference, but it is a grounded one, based on the price data and the government’s own stated long-term framework.

Fourth: make help targeted, not generic. Broad subsidies are expensive and often leaky. Better to focus relief on the households and sectors that are most exposed: poor families, public transport drivers, farmers, fisherfolk, and food logistics. Government statements have already emphasized protecting vulnerable households and affected industries if external shocks worsen.

The morning-after truth

So the real lesson of this Wednesday is not simply that fuel has become expensive.

It is that the Philippines remains structurally exposed. We are not paying these prices because Filipinos suddenly started driving more this week. We are paying them because our economy still depends too heavily on imported oil, our transport system still runs too deeply on diesel, and our alternatives remain too weak to protect ordinary families when the world turns violent.

By Wednesday morning, the hike is already over.

What remains is the bill.

And for the families nearest the edge, the question is no longer whether inflation is manageable.

It is whether there is still enough left after rice, fish, pamasahe, kuryente, and gas.

Because when prices rise, the poor do not feel it later.

They feel it first.

They feel it hardest.

(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. Marriz B. Agbon is a Mindanawon now based in Taguig City, a chamber executive and development professional who previously led agribusiness promotion initiatives in government, working with private sector groups and chambers of commerce to strengthen regional economies. A graduate of the SBEP program of the University of Asia and the Pacific, he has spent much of his career at the intersection of business, policy, and enterprise development. In recent years, he has turned increasingly to writing – reflecting on aging, endurance sports, family history, and the quiet lessons of everyday life. He writes another column for MindaNews – “South of the 8th Parallel” – every Sunday.)